The Iran War as a Threshold

As media coverage focuses on bombs, destruction, and escalating violence, it reinforces an immediate and narrow reading of the conflict. Yet beneath this surface lies another dimension: the Iran war is not only an event, but a manifestation—and an accelerator—of deeper transformations already reshaping the world

What we are witnessing is not only a geopolitical confrontation, but a shift unfolding across multiple levels: political, economic, military, and energetic.

The conflict is likely to intensify trends that were already in motion. At COP28, more than 130 countries committed to tripling renewable energy capacity by 2030. Decentralized, rapidly deployable technologies increasingly support this ambition. In this context, war—by driving up the cost and instability of oil—may inadvertently hasten the transition toward renewable energy systems that are more accessible, locally controlled, and less vulnerable to geopolitical disruption.

Oil infrastructure, by contrast, is costly, fragile, and dependent on long-term stability—conditions that conflict directly undermines. In such an environment, long-term investment becomes increasingly uncertain. Rather than signaling an abrupt end to fossil fuels, the current crisis may be accelerating their gradual loss of dominance.

At the institutional level, the war also exposes the growing limitations of traditional global frameworks. Organizations such as NATO, OPEC, and the United Nations are increasingly challenged by a more fluid and multipolar reality. This does not necessarily mark their end, but it does suggest a reconfiguration of their roles and influence.

Diplomatic relations themselves appear to be evolving. Recent high-level visits—such as that of Pedro Sánchez, Spain’s Prime Minister, to China, alongside leaders from the United Arab Emirates, Russia, and Vietnam—point to a shift toward more direct, pragmatic, and less protocol-driven engagement.

At the same time, the military dimension reveals its own contradictions. As seen in recent conflicts, including in Ukraine and Iran, highly sophisticated and costly military systems are increasingly challenged by low-cost, decentralized technologies such as drones. This asymmetry raises questions about the sustainability and effectiveness of traditional military investment, particularly when measured against the level of security it actually provides.

Finally, beneath these structural shifts lies a more subtle transformation: the role of people themselves. There are growing signs of a desire for more direct participation in shaping the future—whether through civic engagement, local initiatives, or new forms of collective organization. Recent protest movements in the United States, including the so-called “No Kings” marches, reflect this search for more direct forms of political expression. While it would be premature to speak of a full transition to direct democracy, the pressure for more participatory and less mediated systems is becoming increasingly visible.

In this sense, the Iran war is not only a tragedy—it is also a threshold. It reveals the exhaustion of a world built on control, extraction, and mediation, while accelerating the search for new forms of energy, new forms of power, and new forms of participation.

The old structures are not simply failing; they are being surpassed by a deeper aspiration emerging from people themselves.

The question now is not only how the conflict will end, but whether this moment will open the possibility for a more human world to take shape.

Article first published in Pressenza and also available in: Spanish, French